Are you really that surprised, NHL betting fans? Why?

You’ll tell me that I’m crazy. You’ll tell me Martin Gerber is online betting kryptonite (and I’m sure he was — did anyone pick the Leafs to beat Washington at the sportsbook last night?).

But I’ll tell you that you’d only be right in certain situations. And this is not one of those situations.

If you look closely at Gerber’s career, his numbers are totally dictated by his situation. When he has no competition for a starting job, he excels. When he’s remotely pushed, he crumbles like a stale cookie.

I’m sorry, hockey betting fans…did you think Curtis Joseph, Olaf “press box” Kolzig or Justin “AHL” Pogge was gonna push Gerber hard for the starting job?

With Ray Emery injured to open the season in 2007-08, Gerber went 7-1 with a 1.99 GAA and .940 save percentage in October and 22-8-1 with a 2.65 GAA and .914 save percentage before the All-Star break. After Emery returned and started competing with him for the job: Gerber posted a 2.92 or higher GAA in three of the last four months of the season and won eight of 22 post-break starts.

Keep a close eye on Gerber and the Leafs, who are somehow 5-0-1 in their last six games, at the sportsbook down the stretch. Know that Gerber is at his best when there’s no pressure and consider the Leafs in some online betting matchups. DON’T pick Gerber against the Sens next week, though — his motivation for revenge would constitute a “pressure” game, meaning Gerber should wilt.

Happy NHL betting this weekend…